Frank Calzon. Published Monday, September 3, 2001 in
The Miami Herald
Is Fidel Castro dying? His recent fainting spell during a speech, which his
propagandists tried to explain away by pointing out that a few dozen other
Cubans passed out as well, added intensity to a rumor mill that has become a
cottage-industry among regime-watchers.
Were the other faintees at the supremo's speech 75 years of age, like him,
and known to be suffering from a variety of serious ailments? Did the Cubans
faint from boredom, or from the sheer idiocy of having to endure another
ridiculous speech in July's unpleasantly high temperatures? Is it common for
healthy Cubans, who regularly cut sugarcane 12 hours a day in the sweltering
sun, simply to pass out? Should elderly tourists be concerned about collapsing
in Cuba's heat?
Raúl Castro, the leader's brother, has urged the hated Americans to
negotiate with Fidel "while there is still time.'' Time for what, time for
one last conversation with the Líder Máximo? Or time for an
agreement favorable to his corrupt tyranny?
Given Fidel's obvious frail state, the question is: What will the remaining
leadership choose to do? Will Raúl consider an early break-out,
Batista-style (before or after Fidel's death)? This may not be so farfetched:
Madrid's daily, Diario 16, reports that the Castro family has huge deposits in
Switzerland.
Fulgencio Batista, the previous dictator, insisted that he would go out with
the last bullet. But by the time Che Guevara had captured Santa Clara, 160 miles
from Havana on New Year's Eve, 1959, Batista was in Santo Domingo, enjoying the
hospitality of Rafael Trujillo, with U.S. connivance.
Will Raúl choose to fight as Fidel pronounced that he would if anyone
comes to arrest him -- that he'll shoot to kill? A brutal thought for a man in
his 70s. Fidel was referring, of course, to speculation that he might be
arrested, much like Augusto Pinochet or Slobodan Milosevic. Fidel is not a man
who wants to take his chances in a court of law.
Fidel has a history of unfulfilled bravado:
Attending a leftist congress in Bogota in 1948, he witnessed a major
uprising and went around the city making speeches urging Colombians to offer
their lives for "the revolution.'' However, when things got too hot, he
pleaded with the Cuban ambassador to put him aboard a cargo plane carrying
cattle to Havana.
In 1953, after the "historic'' attack on the Moncada barracks (the
grim reason why people have to stand in July heat listening to the boss), Fidel
told his followers "It is now victory or death'' and then retreated,
leaving his wounded behind, and said that the Batista police would never get him
alive. He then asked Santiago's bishop to protect his life -- ironic, when one
considers what happened to the Catholic Church after Fidel came to power.
Later, Fidel ordered his comrades to go out and fight to the last man -- as
far away from home as possible. And they did, in the high Andes and the African
bush, and he surely shed many a bitter tear when learning of their demises. When
some surrendered, as in Grenada, he punished them.
WEARING EXPENSIVE NIKE'S
So what should we expect from Fidel, Raúl and the rest of the
nomenclatura? The health of the Cuban revolution (or what is left of it) is a
reflection of Fidel's personal health. Fidel knows this, Raúl knows this
and so do most Cubans. Fidel is not going to go down fighting. How would he
fight? In his army fatigues, wearing his expensive Nike's? From a hospital bed?
And against whom?
The real issue is whether Fidel Castro or his closest entourage figure they
can hang on for a while longer, the older ones perhaps dying in their beds in
Havana; or whether it might be safer to opt for retirement elsewhere and enjoy
the millions stashed abroad for a rainy day that soon approaches.
The last act in the drama between Castro and the Cuban people may turn out
to be the strangest yet.
Frank Calzón is executive director of the
Center for a Free Cuba.
Copyright 2001 Miami Herald | 
