AREQUIPA, Peru – Authorities of the Cuban regime reported the arrival of 1.8 million tourists to the Island between January and June of this year. This figure, presented during debates prior to the ordinary session of the National Assembly of People’s Power, was refuted by the renowned economist Pedro Monreal.
A thread on X (formerly Twitter) by the expert dismantles the official narrative, asserting that the press release about the first semester 2024 report presented to the economic commission “displays erroneous tourism data.”
The note, published by the state media Cubadebate, indicates that while tourism in Cuba grew by 1.8% compared to 2023, the 1.8 million figure is only 85% of the plan and 51.6% of what was achieved in 2019.
Additionally, the regime claimed that the main source markets are Canada, Russia, Cubans residing abroad, and Germany.
In contrast, Monreal pointed out that “it is known that the total for January-May was 1,174,888 visitors, and it is not possible for the total for January-June to be 1.8 million.”
To accumulate 1.8 million visitors from January to June, the economist argued, 625,112 visitors would have had to arrive in June, but the maximum number of visitors welcomed in a month of June in recent years was recorded in June 2018 (342,195).
“The order in which main source markets are mentioned also seems erroneous. Up until the January-May total, the top five sources were, in this order, Canada, the Cuban community, the USA, Russia, and England. The official data for June has not been published,” Monreal added.
According to the professor, “perhaps in the January-June 2024 data, Russia might have surpassed the USA, but it is less likely that it overtook the Cuban community. It does not seem feasible that Germany surpassed the USA, which is not even mentioned in the report.”
As early as last May, Monreal concluded that the figures provided by the government on the Island were “inconsistent” and did not reflect a true recovery of the Cuban tourism sector, as the regime wants to make it appear.
He also points out that the relative weight of investment in “hotels and restaurants” and “business services, real estate, and rental activities” grew in the first quarter of 2024 to 34.5% of total investment, while investment in agricultural activities was only 2.8%.
Although the country has reached one million tourists, it seems unlikely that it will reach the estimated 3.2 million visitors that the regime set as an annual goal, especially considering the pace of the first quarter, which coincides with the high season.
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